By Zayyad I. Muhammad
The emergence of Nuhu
Ribadu as the governorship candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
will alter the traditional voting culture in the state.
Nuhu’s emergence was
trailed with so much hullabaloo, intrigues and the usual political maneuvers of
who gets what. Furthermore, Nuhu’s strongest opponents, Senator Muhammad
Jibrilla Bindawa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Dr. Ahmed Modibbo
of the Peoples’ Democratic Movement (PDM), share some ‘similar’ traits with
Nuhu; thus, they do not have any extraordinary advantage over Nuhu.
One cannot discuss Adamawa politics without delving into the sad nature of the politics of the state. Mother-tongue; geography; faith and the usual Nigerian money-politics are deeply rooted in the state’s polity and often shape the voting pattern in the state.
There is no doubt
that Nuhu is the favourite candidate in the Adamawa governorship race. He
enjoys unprecedented support across the state because he is relatively young,
incorruptible, well-read, urbane, with a clean record and has integrity to
jealously protect. Still, mother-tongue; geography; faith and the usual
Nigerian money-politics may determine how some areas will vote for or against
Nuhu.
For instance, Adamawa
Central, a zone that has a very large voting population and predominantly
Hausa-Fulani, is a cosmopolitan area and an opposition stronghold. Yola North
and South and Girei have a very large voting population and mainly support APC.
However, the voting
pattern could significantly skew in favour of Ribadu. Reasons being that Ribadu
is a ‘home boy’ and the area is thirsty for a governor that will bring real
development. Senator Bindawa had been confident of sweeping all the
Hausa-Fulani votes from this area but the emergence of Nuhu may have wiped that
advantage off. Bindawa’s candidacy was meant to challenge Umaru Fintiri’s
candidacy not a Ribadu’s.
Song, Gombi and Hong
will vote Ribadu because the PDP’s Senatorial candidate is very strong in those
three local government areas. Furthermore, the APC and PDM committed a major
political blunder – both their governorship and senatorial candidates are
individuals outside these localities.
In fact, former
Governor Nyako’s son, Abdul-Azeez Nyako, will fly the APC senatorial flag for
Adamawa Central instead of his native zone – Adamawa South.
On the other hand,
the chunk of the uproar about Nuhu’s candidacy was mainly from the Numan
federation, because the area wanted a Christian governor. Though traditionally
an overwhelmingly PDP area, the area may not be enthusiast, because their
expectation was not met. And worse is that the APC is offering nothing to them
and Bindawa does not seem to fit their bill. So the area will be in uncertainty
that may lead to voter apathy.
The Chamba/Ganye
chiefdom, Atiku’s locality, will be the biggest beneficiary of the governorship
race. No matter who wins, one of their sons will be the deputy governor. The
Chamba tribe has the largest voting population in Adamawa South. And have had
the quest to produce a governor or deputy governor for long. The advantage Nuhu
will enjoy in the chiefdom is that the Nyako political ‘stains’ may paint
Bindawa black. Nyako loyalists were instrumental in defeating most of Atiku’s
candidates in the APC primaries.
Adamawa North is
devastated by the Boko Haram insurgency; those who are angry with the PDP over
its failure to combat the insurgency may be reluctant to give Nuhu their votes.
Even if he manages to
win the area, Mubi will be an exception as they may vote their son – Bindawa.
Despite being a ‘home boy’ in Adamawa North, Bindawa has very many difficult
questions to answer arising from his four years as the senator representing the
zone. Though, if Buhari wins, Bindawa may enjoy the bandwagon effect, but
Buhari did not win Adamawa in 2003, 2007 and 2011. But this is 2015!
Dr. Ahmed Modibbo of
the PDM with enormous war chest has already lost the elections the moment he
and his wife picked tickets for governor and senator. His candidacy will be an
albatross to the APC.
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu is
expected to have an easy ride at the polls, but he and his handlers have to
work hard to fix the fractured PDP by using the spirit of wide consultations,
extend olive branch to aggrieved contestants who lost to Ribadu, including
helping to lift the suspension on some party members.
Zayyad I. Muhammad
writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980. He blogs at www.zayyaddp.blogspot.com
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