By Godwin
Onyeacholem
There can be no better expression of
apprehension over the 2015 elections than the spontaneous groundswell of
agitation for violence-free balloting by many prominent as well as obscure
Nigerians and some of the country’s deeply concerned foreign friends.
Perhaps,
given the palpable fear of explosive conflict that the unquestionably zero-sum
election might generate, it is just as well that a strong, full-strength case
be made for avoiding violence in order to avert a potentially disintegrating state
of affairs in the polity.
But as carefully observed, two distinct
submissions can be gleaned from the multi-stratal interventions in this
instance: first, there is the disingenuous and seemingly conspiratorial contention
that regardless of what happens, violence must be avoided; then there is the
more upfront, decisive take urging the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) to live up to its name as an independent, unbiased electoral body and
for the federal government (read the ruling party) to refrain from using its
might to manipulate the process to its advantage so that the inclination to
violence can be completely eliminated.
Take note that the first submission,
unlike the second, hugs the reluctance to take into account the way human
beings are likely to respond in the face of obvious cheating.
It is saying that
even if INEC is seen to be undermining the party you support, and the federal
government uses security agents to brutalize opposition party agents and
supporters in a deliberate resolve to ensure the ruling party retains power,
simply fold your arms and walk away from the polling booths.
It says wring your hands and turn the
other cheek when slapped. And if an offended political party feels strongly
about the way the whole process was openly skewed in favour of those who now
control power at the centre, it should just shut up and quietly head for the
courts! At face value, these admonitions sound so straightforward as to be the
ultimate check for violent eruptions. But whether this how it is going to play
out, Nigerians wait to see.
Yet, let no one be deceived. And Lai
Mohammed, the national publicity secretary of the All Progressives Congress
(APC), the rest of the party leadership and their members must bear in mind
this grim forecast: in spite of all the preachments, hope and prayer from all
quarters, the 2015 election will not be free, fair, credible and transparent given
the unparalleled high stakes surrounding it. In other words, the election
everyone is feverishly looking forward to in the New Year will be rigged outright,
and without any feeling of regret.
The party at the heart of the rigging
will be no less than the so-called largest party in Africa. In view of what it
stands to lose if the APC wins the presidential election – especially the automatic
halt to the carefree romp on the gravy train, not to talk of an uncertain
future under APC – PDP will do everything under the sun to ensure victory for
itself.
And if the PDP wins, it is fairly certain that it will not be long
before the APC begins to crumble, thus signalling the end of any effective
opposition in the system and aborting the long-held dream of advancing
Nigeria’s political development through opposition victory at the centre for
the first time since independence.
However, with its popularity currently going
down in a manner it has never experienced, the PDP, as it had done in the past,
will use all the security agencies under its control to its advantage. The
army, police and state security service operatives will provide cover for PDP
politicians and their supporters to perpetrate all kinds of electoral fraud. Where
necessary, they will use violence. When this happens, you can guess how APC
supporters will react.
Though President Goodluck Jonathan in
his New Year message promised to organise free and fair elections, the rhetoric
of some top officials of his party contradicts him. Theirs favour the infamous
“do-or-die” stance of the Obasanjo era. In any case, it’s not the duty of
Jonathan to promise and commit to credible elections.
That is the
responsibility of the INEC boss Professor Attahiru Jega. Jonathan is a player
in the game, so like other players the least he can do is to promise to abide
by the rules as spelt out by INEC. In reality, he cannot conduct an election in
which he is contesting.
Moreover, you are bound to be excused
if you pause to question the sincerity of a President and a party that insist
on recognising as ‘winner’ a contestant who had 16 votes instead of the one who
had 19 votes in an election.
For such a President and the party to hold on to
the lie that 16 is greater than 19 and confer legitimacy on the former, Nigerians
and the rest of the world cannot ask for a
better sneak preview on the size of desperation that will define the
forthcoming election.
Unfortunately, INEC itself cannot be
trusted to be totally neutral in the conduct of the election. The Commission’s one-sided
role in the 2011 elections is still fresh. That INEC, in many ways, helped the
PDP achieve victory in the last election is not in doubt. Still, Jega has
continued to carry on like someone who has something to hide.
So far, he has done nothing significant
to convince a huge chunk of the electorate that he will be impartial this time.
The Commission’s distribution of the Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) in some
states has been sloppy at best. In spite of his promises, there are increasing
signs that many voters will be disenfranchised, and they are likely going to be
from opposition stronghold.
In the end, what for one is certain is
that given what is up for grabs PDP will rig the election. What is yet unclear
is how APC will respond to the scam. But no doubt, the fear of violence is
real.
Godwin Onyeacholem is a journalist based in Abuja. He can be
reached on gonyeacholem@gmail.com
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