By Anthony Akinola*
It is an indisputable fact of life that we all want to be proved
right when we have made predictions. The prophet, who has predicted doom and
gloom, praises the Almighty God for his gift, even if it is a whole village
that has been ravaged by fire.
In a similar vein, hose who have warned or
predicted the possible disintegration of our nation would probably raise up
their glasses in celebration if a calamity of unimaginable proportions were to
befall us in 2015, the very year they have identified as the fateful year.
The prediction of a chaotic 2015 was made by an American
think-thank a few years ago. The year 2015 happens to be an election year, with
all its implications. he proponents of the prediction would wish their
expertise to be proved right,and could induce the process if it were within
their powers to do so.
One is not in a position to know the discussions that take place
in governmental circles, or among the privileged ones in the Council of State.
Suffice to say that leaders of any serious nation would long have deliberated
on the report that projects so much danger, with a view to mending delicate
fences.
Most informed Nigerians know that the presidential election slated
for February could be one source of danger. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi wrote an
open letter to that effect recently, admonishing President Goodluck Jonathan
and General Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidates of our two main political
parties, to do their best in preventing or curtailing possible post-election
violence.
Pastor Tunde Bakare had earlier warned that there might be no election
in 2015, if the current state of insecurity in the country continued. Some
prominent Nigerians--Cardinal Anthony Olubunmi Okogie, Chief Afe Babalola, and
Professor Ben Nwabueze, among others--have pointedly asked President Jonathan
to supervise the 2015 election, rather than participate in it, for the sake of
peace in the polity.
This writer is one of ordinary Nigerians, who share their view.
President Jonathan had himself told us in the past that he would not be seeking
re-election in 2015, and it is an open secret that his party, the People's
Democratic Party, has a policy of alternating the presidency between the South
and the North, a policy which was somehow truncated in order to accommodate his
ambition for understandable reasons.
President Jonathan would require a lesson
in the science of human behavior if he assumed that many did not feel offended
by what was to them some kind of political dishonesty. Not a few still begrudge
him privately, even when they pretend to be going along with him publicly.
More significantly, the eligibility of President Jonathan to seek
a further term in office is highly contestable. Should he contest the election
without this matter being resolved, there would be those waiting to see if he
could be sworn into office for a third time--the constitution seems to allow a
maximum of two times. Should he win the 2015 election, his opponents would want
to ensure that his joy did not last by taking him up on constitutional grounds.
Forget about those desperate noises being made by the so-called
Ambassadors of Transformation, Goodluck Jonathan may not be the most popular
president on earth seeking re-election.
Telephone interviews with some of those
who voted for him in 2011 reveal they might not be doing so in 2015.They claim
to have been disappointed by his performance, his modest achievements having
been rubbished by allegations of escalating official corruption and mediocre
handling of security issues.
The reasons they adduced for supporting him in 2011 seem to no
longer appeal. Regardless of whether or not Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the
defunct Action Congress of Nigeria entered into a secret arrangement to support
Jonathan to the detriment of his own party, most members of his party in its
Yoruba stronghold voted for Jonathan on strongly-held sentiments.
They were of
the opinion that the North had dominated the leadership position for too long,
that a member of the minority ethnic groups in the South had previously
never been elected national leader, and that Jonathan came from the region that
produced the wealth of the nation.
There is hardly any doubt that sentiments will still run riot in
the putative 2015 election. There are those who will vote for either of the
main candidates, Jonathan and Buhari, solely because of ethnic and religious
solidarities, South versus North and Christian versus Muslim sentimentalities.
Of course, there would be those who will be loyal to their political parties,
as well as those who would view things strictly from non-partisan
perspectives--more concerned about issues and their perceptions of the
contestants.
The most potent factor in Nigerian politics - election rigging - would
still play its customary role. A tough election year in prospect, but I second
the patriotic Professor Akinyemi in urging our leaders to let Nigeria be the
main winner in an election that promises so much.
*The author, who has published several notable books, columns on
African political issues, lives and writes from Oxford, UK.
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