By Geoffrey York/ The Globe and Mail
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Professor Morton Jerven’s
research has prompted enough hostility in Africa to get him banned from two
conferences. (Handout)
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Morten Jerven, a mild-mannered
Vancouver professor, didn’t expect much publicity for his scholarly tome on
statistics. He blinked in surprise when he realized his academic book had triggered
an eruption of outrage across Africa.
Prof. Jerven, an economic historian at
Simon Fraser University, has become the bête noire of some of Africa’s
most powerful officials. They have denounced him as a “hired gun” who wants to
“discredit” African governments. They insist he must be “stopped in his
tracks.” And their furious pressure has already gotten him banned from two
international conferences this year.
He ignited the uproar by tackling an
unusual taboo: the quality of African statistics. His four years of research –
including many visits to the offices of African data agencies – has cast
serious doubt on the “Africa Rising” narrative and its much-hyped claims about
African development and economic growth.
Prof. Jerven admits that the unexpected
political controversy has given him “a little thrill” – but also “a little
trepidation” as he wondered how his opponents intended to stop him. He
continues to defend his book, hoping to spark a bigger debate on the world’s
assumptions about African growth.
Prof. Jerven’s basic argument is this:
Even the most basic African economic statistics cannot be fully trusted,
because they are often riddled with major flaws and wild inconsistencies. And
if those numbers are dubious, everyone from foreign aid donors to global
lending agencies needs to reconsider their assumptions about Africa. His book, Poor
Numbers, concludes that African statistics are much more questionable than
anyone realized – a “black box” of uncertainty, resulting in “governance by
ignorance.”
Even the simplest numbers on Gross
Domestic Product, for example, are undermined by “huge discrepancies and
alarming gaps,” he says. “The data are unreliable and potentially misleading.”
When he visited African statistical
offices, he often found them in disarray. Their top directors refused to
respond to his requests for meetings, their staff sometimes could not provide
basic data, and one bureaucrat manhandled him and threw him out of a
statistical office in an East African country (he won’t say which one).
The statistics matter, he says, because
they can have a huge impact on government policies, foreign aid, international
credit and other key issues. In his book, Prof. Jerven cites the case of
Malawi, where farm harvest numbers were apparently exaggerated to convince
donors to keep financing fertilizer and seed programs. He cites Nigeria, where
population numbers – until recently – were so unreliable that nobody knew how
many vaccinations or schools were needed.
And as the book points out, Liberia is
either the second-poorest country in Africa – or richer than most African
countries, depending on whose data you believe.
The inaccuracies became obvious when
Ghana updated its economic numbers in 2010, and its GDP was suddenly raised by
60 per cent, making it officially a “middle-income country” for the first time.
Nigeria is on the verge of a similar revision to its GDP, and its economy will
also seem dramatically bigger overnight.
Prof. Jerven’s book has been praised by
economists and other experts. Bill Gates, the Microsoft billionaire who has
become a leading philanthropist in Africa, says the book “makes a strong case”
for casting doubt on official GDP numbers. “We need to devote greater resources
to getting basic GDP numbers right,” Mr. Gates wrote in response to the book.
“The better tools we have for measuring progress, the more we can ensure that
those investments reach the people who need them the most.”
But the reaction from some African
governments has been anything but positive. Many were embarrassed to see their
weaknesses exposed. Others are sensitive to any foreign criticism, seeing it as
a throwback to the colonial era.
Prof. Jerven’s critics, led by South
African statistician-general Pali Lehohla, pressured a United Nations economic
commission to remove him from the speaking list at a conference in September in
Addis Ababa. They also objected to him speaking publicly at a conference in
Paris in May, so his session was postponed and moved behind closed doors.
“Morten Jerven will hijack the African
statistical development program unless he is stopped in his tracks,” Mr.
Lehohla told an interviewer from the Royal African Society in London.
“We shall not be labeled a pitiful
sight,” he added on a South African website.
Zambia’s central statistical office
went further: It issued a 13-page statement, attacking Prof. Jerven as a “hired
gun” with a “hidden agenda” to “discredit” African officials. Although it
acknowledged that many of his criticisms were correct, it complained of his
“sweeping and sensational conclusions.” It accused him of “sneaking in” to
government offices and “taking advantage” of junior statisticians without
trying to confirm his findings with the top managers. “This is extremely
unethical,” the office said.
Prof. Jerven, a 35-year-old Norwegian
who moved to Canada in 2009, rejects the criticism of his research methods. He
didn’t sneak into any offices, he says. He walked in through the main doors,
because he always had an invitation from at least one person in the statistical
offices, even though the top directors failed to respond to his letters.
Any challenge to the status quo “is
considered a threat,” which is why the African bureaucrats are so furious, he
says. “Maybe Lehohla and other statisticians are worried that I am standing
between them and another payday.”
The controversy has been “intense and
frustrating,” he says, but most of the reaction to his research has been
positive. His book, crucially, is now leading to significant reforms. The
African Development Bank, for example, has sent a mission to Lusaka to launch a
review of Zambia’s statistical programs.
Even his sharpest critics may
eventually be willing to back down. The Globe and Mail has learned that a group
of leading African statisticians, including Mr. Lehohla, has agreed to a
private meeting with Prof. Jerven early next year in Botswana – and both sides
seem ready to resolve their battle.
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