By
Lagun Akinloye
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APC
leaders, (from left) Tinubu, Buhari and Onu
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With
Nigeria's ruling PDP facing serious internal and external problems, four
opposition parties merged to become the All Progressive Congress.
Since Nigeria’s transition from
military rule to multi-party governance in 1999, the candidate representing the
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has won
every single presidential election. Although putting up a fight, opposition
candidates have never really looking likely to end the PDP’s dominance.
However, in the upcoming 2015
elections, Nigeria’s opposition could have its best chance yet. This February,
four of Nigeria’s opposition parties banded together to form
the All Progressives Congress (APC). Meanwhile, questions are increasingly being
asked of the current government’s ability to tackle outstanding economic,
social and security challenges, and the PDP is thought to be beset with internal
disputes and personality battles.
Could the APC signal a new era of
Nigerian politics?
A call for change
Speaking at the inauguration of the new
coalition, Tom Ikimi, chairman of the APC merger committee, proclaimed:
“At no time in our national life has radical change become more urgent…We, the
following political parties – namely ACN [Action Congress of Nigeria], ANPP
[All Nigeria People’s Party], APGA [All Progressive Grand Alliance] and CPC
[Congress for Progressive Change] – have resolved to merge forthwith and become
All Progressive Congress and offer to our beleaguered people a recipe for peace
and prosperity.”
A merger of opposition parties has been
proposed around every election since 1999, but until now conflicting political
interests, ethnic chauvinism and even sabotage scuppered such efforts. The
closest Nigeria came to such an alliance previously was in the lead-up to the
2011 presidential election when the CPC and ACN proposed a coalition – the two
parties’ failure
to resolve their difference and reach an agreement paved the way for a
comfortable PDP victory.
Prior to the APC merger, each
opposition group was viewed more as a regional party, representing ethnic
blocks – a contrast to the outwardly nationwide appeal of the PDP. The
coalition has thus brought together several major ethnic groups and notably
crosses the north-south divide by uniting together: the Hausa-Fulani-dominated
CPC, which garnered
31.8% of votes in the 2011 presidential elections; the Yoruba-dominated ACN,
which currently controls 6 out of the 36 states in the federation, including
Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos; the Igbo-centred APGA, which holds one
state; and the ANPP, which controls Borno and Yobe states.
“The move towards a two-party system
creates a potentially more credible, formidable and focused opposition”,
explained Adigun Agbaje, Professor of Political Science at the University of
Ibadan. Meanwhile, speaking to Think Africa Press, former PDP minister Femi
Fani-Kayode went as far as say, “If things don’t change and the present
administration is not voted out, then Nigeria will eventually end up like the
Republic of Zaire – a failed state with no hope of a decent future.”
PDP difficulties
In recent years, the total dominance of
the PDP has waned somewhat. President Goodluck Jonathan received
57% of votes in the 2011 elections, down from the 70% garnered by his
predecessor, the late Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007. The PDP controls
56% of the seats in the House of Representatives, compared to 73% in 2007. And
its strength in the Senate over the same period has decreased from 81% to 65%.
Furthermore, while the opposition is
coming together, there are signs internal divisions in the PDP are deepening.
There seem to be ongoing disagreements, for example, between governors and the
National Working Committee led by Bamanga Tukur – these rifts were exemplified
by the fact the majority of governors chose to boycott Tukur's recent
reconciliatory tour to various PDP-controlled states.
A further contentious issue is the
perceived decline of Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military ruler who went on to
win the 1999 and 2003 presidential elections and who continues to be an
influential figure in the PDP and respected international figure. At local and
international forums, Obasanjo has not shirked from speaking out
against the government's handling of the northern Islamist militant group Boko
Haram and the high levels of unemployment. The removal of a known Obasanjo
loyalist in the PDP's national executive further points to a rift which, if not
resolved, could play into the APC's hands.
APC’s upcoming
challenges
In response to the inauguration of the
APC, the PDP released a strongly-worded statement
signed by the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Olisa Metuh, asserting:
“Nigerians are here confronted with an irony. It is an irony of a political
party which without adequate planning, without a solid working rhythm, yet
wishes to be entrusted to its effete, shaky shoulders, the fate of over 160
million Nigerians”. It continued, “the nation, her people and our democracy are
all in jeopardy should they be entrusted with power.”
Whilst clearly partisan, the statement
points the fact the APC faces several tricky challenges itself.
“Should the new party consolidate and
begin to operate as a single entity, it is likely that the 2015 elections will
be more competitive”, explained Samir Gadio, Emerging Markets Strategist for
Standard Bank, “[but] the sustainability of the merger is not without risks”.
“The presidential nomination ahead of
the 2015 contest may still divide the new organisation. Besides, the PDP is
still in control of most states and has access to administrative resources,
which is a key comparative advantage”, he continued.
Similarly, Ayo Dunmoye, professor of
political science and dean of social sciences at Ahmadu Bello University in
Zaria, insisted the APC ought to "debate on issues, not
personalities", embrace internal democracy, and allow candidates to emerge
in free primary elections – “otherwise the merger will be stillborn,” he
warned.
Indeed, the two main players in the APC
– Muhammadu Buhari, former military ruler and CPC’s head, and Bola Tinubu,
former governor of Lagos and ACN's leader – will likely have their own agendas
in the run up to the 2015, and the choice of presidential candidate could prove
a real test for the coalition. After all, a number of APC members look likely
to be interested in that position, such as Buhari himself, former Minister of
the Federal Capital Nasir El Rufai and governor of Lagos Babatunde Fashola.
A new political
terrain?
A strong and viable opposition is an
essential part of any electoral process and the merger should bring about
increased competitiveness in Nigerian politics. But this in of itself does not
guarantee ordinary Nigerians will benefit. Political wrangling in the past has
done little to help ordinary Nigerians, and problems of unregulated money in
politics, patrimonialism and corruption within parties are likely to confront
the APC too.
But amidst this, Agbaje of the
University of Ibadan places his faith in the Nigerian people. “The resilience
of the people, their vitality, broad disdain for authoritarianism and yearning
for freedom, justice and equity promises to constantly work for a future secure
in democracy, development and peace”, he says.
Whether these ideals work in favour of
the ruling PDP or the newly-formed APC remains to be seen, but if the new
coalition manages to hold firm until 2015, the elections will be the closest of
the Fourth Republic.
Source: Think Africa Press: www.thinkafricapress.com
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