By Theophilus Ilevbare
There
is a need to provide a credible alternative to the electorate, a radical change
borne out of the growing discontent of Nigerians with the failure of the PDP led
government that has held power at the centre since 1999, to transform the country’s
fortune despite multi-billion dollar oil revenue frittered by successive
government - $67billion in foreign reserves in the last few years - deflating
any hope of a breath of Jonathan’s “fresh air,” for these, the leaders of the
coalition, saw an exigency in salvaging the beleaguered Nigerian people from the
present socio-political and economic downturn as an impetus for the merger.
And
so much was the euphoria that greeted the announcement of the All Progressives
Congress (APC), that it sent jitters across the political divide. The coalition
of ACN, CPC, ANPP and APGA to form the new alliance is an audacious bid to
unseat the ruling party in the 2015 general elections.
Two
recent events gave fillip to the merger. First, was the meeting of 10 governors
from opposition parties to endorse the coalition. Secondly, the formation of
contact and mobilization committee to expedite alliance talks.
Both
moves, coupled with a new name, has helped to silence the sceptics who described
the merger as a political jamboree that will soon go the way of the previous
attempt to form an opposition party in 2011.
The
political landscape has been dogged by the absence of credible and formidable opposition.
The new party on the block, has a lot to prove to Nigerians; do they have
something different from what the PDP has to offer?
Can
they prove that they are not the same with the PDP? From their respective
states, senatorial districts and other areas they represent, can they genuinely
say that they have fared better than the party they oppose? These and more will
determine if they will be taken seriously by Nigerians and how far they will
go.
The
political will demonstrated by the ACN and CPC so far must now be translated to
persuasion with renewed optimism and enthusiasm to convince the indifferent
factions to be part of the merger.
The
leaders of the parties in the coalition must be ready to further shift ground
in the sacrifice of personal and regional ambition for the merger to come to
fruition.
The
APC must rise above the debate on issues such as the logo, which many observers
believe is trivial. Technical and ideological differences like the constitution
and manifesto must be given priority as this is the basis for which the
opposition party will be weighed with the PDP. There is no merger where the dissolving bodies remain adamant
on their ideologies. A sound ideology will surely boost the APC’s
acceptance and penetration. It can learn from the PDP’s lack of internal
democracy that has led to incessant wrangling and animosity among its members.
The
jostling for the allocation of offices
among various political parties in the alliance will be the litmus test of how
the APC will deal with the selection process for the candidates before the general
elections. It will be interesting to see how the parties will shift ground to
concede ideological differences in the larger interest of the new party.
The merger between the
ACN and CPC alone might just be enough to see out the PDP, as a school of
thought will have us believe. No, it is a political miscalculation. The PDP has
gained cult followership over the last 14 years in most rural areas where they have
a preponderance of votes cast.
A cursory look at the outcome of
election since 1999, indicate the incumbent seldom lose election. The odds are
always against the opposition. The PDP had boasted sometime ago, that the
merger of all the opposition parties will not be enough to upstage them.
No surprise. Over the years the ruling
party has enriched a lot of Nigerians who can spread a few billions around the
country to win votes from an electorate, a greater proportion, living below the
poverty line.
The merger must be consummated in time
to allow the APC put proper structure across the geo-political zones to
consolidate what the parties already have on ground. Immediate mobilisation and
sensitisation of the electorate, down to the grassroots, on the manifesto of
the new party must commence.
In the North, the CPC and ANPP have got
four states governors; the ACN is well grounded in the South-West, capturing
five out of the six states; they can also count on votes from Edo State in the
South-South; and a faction of APGA led by Imo State governor, and a good
structure in other states of the South-East.
It is still a far cry from the 23
states the PDP controls across the country, but with the merger, the APC can consolidate
by retaining those states and hopefully win a few more. The consummation of all
four political parties as part of the merger, will give it a national spread and
outlook.
The
APC must guard against surreptitious tactics by the PDP to stymie the new party
using the factions of ANPP and APGA not part of the merger. Effort must be made
to woo these disaffected factions who are indifferent to the coalition.
The
APC must beware of smear campaigns against the drivers of the opposition
alliance. With the storm always rocking the PDP boat, the APC should prevent aggrieved
members of the PDP from cross-carpeting to the APC, as the aftermath could be
grave.
The applecart in waiting for the APC will be the
jostle for the nomination for their presidential aspirant and other candidates
seeking ticket for various political offices.
One that is most likely to generate controversy is
the presidential ticket. General Muhammadu Buhari has in recent time expressed
his interest in contesting the 2015 election. His antecedents do not make him
popular in the South but his followership in the North puts him in strong
position.
There is the agitation from the South-East for an
Ndigbo presidential aspirant in 2015. The APGA faction will definitely want a
look in that direction, even if they have to settle for a VP slot.
The South-West has been in and around the
corridors of power, Bola Tinubu, still very much in contention. Most Nigerians want
a clean break from the old brigade like the PDP has done; preference for
younger breed of outstanding politicians from the APC, the likes of Babatunde
Fashola, Nasir el Rufai, Nuhu Ribadu, Oby Ezekwesili and a few others have been
mooted. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the upcoming
months.
There is ample time for the alliance to put its
house in order and mobilize well ahead of the general elections, sensitising Nigerians
across the nooks and crannies that they are a credible alternative to the PDP
government.
Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan’s lacklustre performance in
office will give the opposition a real chance at the polls if they put their acts
together. Gauging the pulse of Nigerians, many are discontented with his
leadership. Whoever the APC presents as presidential aspirants might be given
serious consideration at the polls by the electorate.
The APC should look beyond unseating the PDP at
the centre. Changing the prevalent socio-political ideology, creating an
alternative for development, restructuring and deepening of our political
culture should be part of the underpinning ideas driving the new mega party.
The government of the day will respond better to
criticism from a formidable opposition, thus, raising the bar of leadership and
governance that has made the country totter, for many years, on the thread line
of disaster.
Beyond reasonable doubt, the APC must prove to
Nigerians that “when they come on board” it won’t be time for them to have
their own share of the “national cake.”
Some cynics have expressed caution in the euphoria
that welcomed the announcement of the APC as they reason it is a merger of
strange bedfellows with a DNA of the PDP. They say the merger will fail, just
as the previous attempt to form an opposition alliance in 2011.
Even if it fails, at least they had the courage to
try. There is no political party made of saints anywhere, we all have a past
that we are not proud of. The leaders of the opposition forming the alliance -
if for nothing - laying their personal ambition on the alter of opposition
merger should be commended.
Rather than playing second fiddle to the political
party that vaunts itself as the largest in Africa, they have put individual
aspirations aside in the hope of a new vista for Nigeria. For those who have
chosen to remain armchair critics and spectocrats waiting for saints and
perfectionist to form a political party, they need not wait much longer; the
imminent collapse of the entity called Nigeria!
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